Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
USMCA Article 34.7: The July 2026 Review and the Renegotiation Already Underway
The first six-year joint review opens July 2026. Trump's tariff threats, Sheinbaum's Plan Mexico, automotive rules of origin, and a Mexico-now-largest US trade partner make this the most consequential trilateral negotiation since 1994.
USMCA Article 34.7 mandates a joint review six years after entry into force. The first review opens July 2026. Failure of all three parties to affirm continuation triggers a 16 year sunset window. The 2024 to 2025 backdrop has shifted the negotiation: US merchandise trade with Mexico reached USD 798 billion in 2024 per the US Census Burea...
Vietnam Apparel Substitution Post China Decoupling: The Limits of the Easy Story
Vietnam now ships more knit and woven apparel to the United States than at any point in its history, but the value chain still runs through Chinese mills, and the substitution narrative buckles under rules of origin, port congestion, and FDI absorption ceilings.
The dominant story of the 2020s decoupling cycle is that apparel sourcing has migrated decisively from China to Vietnam. The headline import shares support the claim, but the BACI HS 61 and 62 panel, Vietnamese fabric input data, and on the ground capacity diagnostics tell a more layered story. Vietnam captured assembly volume, not the up...